The World
The first case of the Covid -19 or the corona virus was first discovered in China. A 55 year old person from the Hubei province was pronounced patient zero. the Date was Nov 17th , 2019 . A formal confirmation was given for the same on December 7.
After this cases of pneumonia started to emerge in Wuhan, symptom resembling viral Pneumonia. Further tests from the lower respiratory tract indicated Corona virus.
This was four months ago .
These are the statistics as were seen 11 days ago, compared to today at the time this article was being written. In the last 11 days, the number of infected, grew from 275,864 to 882, 068 ( almost 220% increase . Similarly, the active cases grew from 172,554 to 652,865 ( almost 278% increase ) . the number of fatalities were no different, and, rose from 11398 to 44136 (288% increase) .
The number of patients cured during this period was almost 101% and grew from 91912 to 185067.
Let us have a look at the percentage change during the period
Compared to the number of infected, the percentage of active cases, as on April 1st rose to 74% as compared to 62 % on march 19th . Similarly the fatality rate showed an increase of 1% and rose to 5% from 4.1 % .
the percentage cured dropped to 20% as against 33 % on march 19th . This is an important percentage, as while the infected grew almost 220% during the period , the Healthcare was able to cure almost equal amount of patients, as it had cured till march 19th since Nov 17th /Dec 7th 2019.
Although, this may sound like a great achievement. let us not forget that there is a jump of almost 300% in the last 11 odd days, and this will only compound, as we move forward if proper precautions are not taken to flatten the curve (The USA is already looking at 100k to 250k deaths )
India
Ever since the Novel Corona virus took over the world , the world eyes have been on India. Firstly due to its proximity to the epicenter of the virus.Secondly, because of the huge population (1.34 billion). India has been rather vigilant in regards to the C virus, and, was wise enough to impose right interventions, at the right time, up till now.The sealing of borders , cancelling almost all visas , closing schools and colleges and follow up of suspected cases/ monitoring adherence of quarantine , has led to one of the lowest number of cases for such a high density of population .
On march 19, 2020 , there were a total of just 236 cases, of which 209 were active , 23 cured and 4 fatalities had occurred .
The figures, have however changed significantly in the last 11 days and India crossed the 1637 mark of which 1466 were active cases , 133 cured and 38 deaths .
When we look at these figures we may feel that these were bound to happen and there hasn't been a significant change . If I said that there was a 600% rise in cases , another 600% rise in active cases .a rise of 478% in cured cases and almost 900 % rise in fatalities, would you be alarmed?
Let us be honest here - India has been under a severe lock down since 22nd of March , that is to be held till 15th April 2020.
These numbers have increased, despite people following the social distancing and all the government directions .
To understand figures better India had 360 total cases on 22nd march (Lock down starts ) that grew to 1397 on 31st march 2020 . 240 cases were diagnosed within a single day.
So has India finally hit stage 3 which is the community spread . This can only be said in the coming days . Whats important is to note that the number of cases India had 11 days ago,were added within a day.
The western Media has often criticized India to be hiding its actual numbers . According to one tabloid the the total number of testings that were done till march 18th were 11500. The argument was simply that either people infected were under reported or people who had the disease had not been detected . While personally I do not agree with the argument, what they have been correct about is the other statistics .
The vulnerable
The population that has been found vulnerable or as high risk target groups are older persons or with preexisting medical conditions such as high blood pressure , heart disease ,lung disease etc . India according to a report has almost 122 million people who fall in these categories and this is compounded with an overstretched health care system . While the number of beds per 1000 people is 0.7 , the last known figure for ventilators stood at 40,000.
We all know Italy has been suffering severely from the virus and a comparison of the healthcare will help us understand better why India needs to be more vigilant in tracking and quarantining.
Comparison of Healthcare and other sectors between India and Italy
Looking at the data it is quite evident that Italy as a country, has a much stronger health care system and yet we know what happened to the country . What's important here to note is the date of the first Corona case reported. While Italy held a '' Hug A Chinese'' Campaign , India sealed borders and took precautions.
India has been careful till now and yet, the vulnerability of India is quite evident. A poor health care system may not be able to handle a full blown outbreak like Italy. Right now India is under a lock Down and perhaps sweeping up all the loose cases that would have led to further contamination/spread.
India needs to use this lock down period to really vamp up its healthcare system. There has been an active buzz for collection of funds to fight the disease and hopefully the funds will be used to create better medical facilities and purchase equipment in case an outbreak occurs .
The coming days are going to be crucial and all communities need to come together and fight this menace together. We as Indians are sitting on a heap of dry hay and even a small amber can burn us up , making things go out of control .
The first case of the Covid -19 or the corona virus was first discovered in China. A 55 year old person from the Hubei province was pronounced patient zero. the Date was Nov 17th , 2019 . A formal confirmation was given for the same on December 7.
After this cases of pneumonia started to emerge in Wuhan, symptom resembling viral Pneumonia. Further tests from the lower respiratory tract indicated Corona virus.
This was four months ago .
The number of patients cured during this period was almost 101% and grew from 91912 to 185067.
Let us have a look at the percentage change during the period
the percentage cured dropped to 20% as against 33 % on march 19th . This is an important percentage, as while the infected grew almost 220% during the period , the Healthcare was able to cure almost equal amount of patients, as it had cured till march 19th since Nov 17th /Dec 7th 2019.
Although, this may sound like a great achievement. let us not forget that there is a jump of almost 300% in the last 11 odd days, and this will only compound, as we move forward if proper precautions are not taken to flatten the curve (The USA is already looking at 100k to 250k deaths )
India
Ever since the Novel Corona virus took over the world , the world eyes have been on India. Firstly due to its proximity to the epicenter of the virus.Secondly, because of the huge population (1.34 billion). India has been rather vigilant in regards to the C virus, and, was wise enough to impose right interventions, at the right time, up till now.The sealing of borders , cancelling almost all visas , closing schools and colleges and follow up of suspected cases/ monitoring adherence of quarantine , has led to one of the lowest number of cases for such a high density of population .
The figures, have however changed significantly in the last 11 days and India crossed the 1637 mark of which 1466 were active cases , 133 cured and 38 deaths .
When we look at these figures we may feel that these were bound to happen and there hasn't been a significant change . If I said that there was a 600% rise in cases , another 600% rise in active cases .a rise of 478% in cured cases and almost 900 % rise in fatalities, would you be alarmed?
Let us be honest here - India has been under a severe lock down since 22nd of March , that is to be held till 15th April 2020.
These numbers have increased, despite people following the social distancing and all the government directions .
To understand figures better India had 360 total cases on 22nd march (Lock down starts ) that grew to 1397 on 31st march 2020 . 240 cases were diagnosed within a single day.
So has India finally hit stage 3 which is the community spread . This can only be said in the coming days . Whats important is to note that the number of cases India had 11 days ago,were added within a day.
The western Media has often criticized India to be hiding its actual numbers . According to one tabloid the the total number of testings that were done till march 18th were 11500. The argument was simply that either people infected were under reported or people who had the disease had not been detected . While personally I do not agree with the argument, what they have been correct about is the other statistics .
The vulnerable
The population that has been found vulnerable or as high risk target groups are older persons or with preexisting medical conditions such as high blood pressure , heart disease ,lung disease etc . India according to a report has almost 122 million people who fall in these categories and this is compounded with an overstretched health care system . While the number of beds per 1000 people is 0.7 , the last known figure for ventilators stood at 40,000.
We all know Italy has been suffering severely from the virus and a comparison of the healthcare will help us understand better why India needs to be more vigilant in tracking and quarantining.
Comparison of Healthcare and other sectors between India and Italy
Benchmark
|
India
|
Italy
|
Population
|
135 crore
|
6 crore
|
GDP size (nominal)2020
|
$3.202 trillion
|
$1.989 trillion
|
Nominal Per Capita Income (2020 estimates)
|
$2,338
|
$32,947
|
Health care expenditure (%of GDP), WHO data
|
3.65%
|
9%
|
Density of medical doctor per 10000 person
|
7
|
40
|
Total Hospitals
|
23852 (2018)
|
1063 (2017)
|
Health expenditure per Capita, PPP (Annual)
|
$241
|
$3427
|
First corona case reported
|
29 January 2020
|
29 January 2020
|
India has been careful till now and yet, the vulnerability of India is quite evident. A poor health care system may not be able to handle a full blown outbreak like Italy. Right now India is under a lock Down and perhaps sweeping up all the loose cases that would have led to further contamination/spread.
India needs to use this lock down period to really vamp up its healthcare system. There has been an active buzz for collection of funds to fight the disease and hopefully the funds will be used to create better medical facilities and purchase equipment in case an outbreak occurs .
The coming days are going to be crucial and all communities need to come together and fight this menace together. We as Indians are sitting on a heap of dry hay and even a small amber can burn us up , making things go out of control .
