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Can Lock Down Actually end the C- virus ?

Wednesday 1 April 2020

Can Indian Summer beat the C virus ?

For a long time now, it is being said that the Novel Corona virus  cant survive high temperatures. The Indian government and people have been hoping that this holds true and India is at less risk of the C virus spread because of the rising temperatures.
However there is some bad news for people that have been hoping this to be true as no association as such has been found between the spread of the virus and the temperature.  What studies have indicated is that there have been significant community outbreaks along restricted latitudes , temperature and humidity, thus behaving like a seasonal respiratory virus . A study done by the students of various universities  actually collected the data and tried relating the incidents to the temperature on a world wide scale.
The data in question was curated from John Hopkin University done on a day to day basis of the Covid-19 cases world wide. the cases were then compiled on a month to month basis for each country, namely January , February and March .

The study then collected the monthly average temperatures in each of the Covid -19 positive cases and drew a correlation between the average monthly temperatures in these countries and total monthly incidents of the cases that was found negative . What it means was that there was no real relation found between the temperatures and number of cases . The study clearly mentions that to create or relate any evidence of direct relation between temperature and cases more data is required .
Let us understand how the cases have changed according to change in temperatures in the last three months. If we have a look at the figure above, Picture one indicates the number of Covid -19 cases . It is quite evident that while the lower hemisphere has been rather hot, the epicenter remains in  Wuhan , China .

February doesn't show any significant changes either although a rise in number of cases in China is seen . The world temperatures according to second graph remains very similar to temperature graph from January
. It is the March spread that really makes the picture quite clear as to how the virus doesn't seem to be related with temperature and has spread mostly based on community patterns along a north east west Direction. Countries that fall in this region show similar weather patterns . What is indicative is that the study is inconclusive when it comes to relating the spread of the disease with temperature rise.

Coming to India  we have seen that the number of cases have risen gradually from January to  March. What is interesting to note is that these cases albeit in the beginning were all imported and were brought in from Covid-19 affected countries . The Local spread is still gradual and while the coming months are going to be extremely hot , focus on Interventions will play an Important Part in Controlling the Virus.

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