Can Lock Down Actually end the C- virus ?

Yesterday as I wrote the article on the increasing numbers of Corona virus  cases round the world in the last ten days,i was constantly reminded, how India had been proactive enough and had gone in to a Lock down at an early stage .

A lot of people specially on social platforms like Facebook have been writing about the changed conditions and how they can't wait,  for the Lock Down to get over, and them getting back to polluting the world. I was rather hopeful that this was a passing phase myself. 

This of course was, till i actually analysed the figures and found out that lock down or no lock down , the Indian figures had Inflated, at a gradual rate. After the Mosque incident  , the numbers have already hit over 2000 as I write this article . 

Today's topic is of course - Can lock Down really help us end this dreaded disease or are we just delaying the Inevitable ? 

A hard question to answer for sure. To analyse this we need  to look at data from the other countries and the dates, the first case reported . Yesterday we had compared the health care system of Italy with that of India and had found that India lacked big time, when it came to essential Healthcare . As of now at least 50 healthcare workers have been found positive out of the 2000 odd cases (2.5%) . 

Let us have a look at the countries with most Corona virus Cases .

As we can see that United States has the most number of cases ,which is over 200 K, as of now. According to BBC world  almost 245 million are under orders to stay home or are facing orders to stay at home 2/3 of the US states have issued orders for Lock down while the rest has some form of it . A peculiar case in question is that of New York ( Hot bed of Infection)

New York

On 29th march President trump has tweeted and said , that there was no need for a Lock down as he had consulted the State Gpreposterous".

New York governor had opposed any idea of a Lock down and had called it anti american and preposterous . According to him if the New-Yorkers were not allowed to leave the Island that would be considered a lock down.

 He had further stated that there were measures in place that restricted large gatherings and had asked people to stay at home but would not let New York turn in to Wuhan . 

The reasons cited were that it would cause the markets to crash, paralyzing the financial sector. 

He has even threatened to sue the adjoining Rhode Island if It continued to target New Yorkers for breaking Quarantine .  This was Two Days ago on March 29th and the Number of infected in New York were 59000.  Today it is 83948 . An increase of almost 42.28 % infected in last three days . 

It is quite evident that while the governor has chosen economics over the ill-effects of the disease, it is the citizens of New York who will have to pay the Price . 

Spain 

Spain went in to a lock down on March 15th after there were around 8000 confirmed cases and 300 dead.  Till date almost 900,000 people have lost their jobs , as the country reals under a severe lock Down . 

Almost fifteen days later the total number of cases are around 110,238 with almost 10,000 dead.  What is important to note that according to Spanish health ministry for the last couple of days the number of severely infected being brought in have reduced  and perhaps the curve will flatten from here off.

Why the example of Spain is important? Spain was one of the countries that imposed a lock down early on and with over 200 fines in place for breaking lock down and has one of the most strict lock downs in place. Yet, the cases have surged and deaths occurred. 

What is important to note is that the lock down has been able to control the surge, unlike what is happening in New York. 

With the above two cases, it can be seen that Lock down can be partially effective, In fact  it helps in slowing down the infection rate. It is however  not a  guarantee to stop the virus from spreading. What it guarantees, is, that it will slow it down, giving precious time to find a cure . 

In case of India, we have been lucky, and if we look at the recent events like the Delhi mosque incident , It is evident, that while it has contributed to a slight spread of the disease,we cannot blame them for a national breakout . The virus will find a way to spread . Spain tried and failed ,New York gave up. Both are suffering and Spain as a 'nation' has fought the virus. 

The fact remains that our understanding of the spread is limited, and we really haven't been able to pinpoint the exact conditions under which it transmits.  A recent example is that of Singer Kanika Kapoor who despite meeting over 266 people failed to infect even a single one of them.  Where we have failed is to treat India as  our own nation specially the Mosque people.

It would  indeed be wishful thinking that once the Lock Down ends , Corona will end.  We need to be careful in the coming times and perhaps investing in a good Mask would be order of the Day.